A reliability‐based selective index for regional flood frequency analysis methods

In this paper, a new index is proposed for the selection of the best regional frequency analysis method. First, based on the theory of reliability, the new selective index is developed. The variances of three regional T‐year event estimators are then derived. The proposed methodology is applied to an actual watershed. For each regional method, the reliability of various T‐year regional estimates is computed. Finally, the reliability‐based selective index graph is constructed from which the best regional method can be determined. In addition, the selection result is compared with that based on the traditional index, root mean square error. The proposed new index is recommended as an alternative to the existing indices such as root mean square error, because the influence of uncertainty and the accuracy of estimates are considered. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Organochlorines and dioxin-like compounds in green-lipped mussels Perna viridis from Hong Kong mariculture zones

Concentrations of persistent organic pollutants including polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), organochlorine (OC) pesticides and dioxin-like compounds were measured in green-lipped mussels, Perna viridis, collected from seven mariculture zones in Hong Kong between September and October in 2002 in order to evaluate the status, spatial distribution and potential sources of pollution in these areas. Concentrations ranged from 300 to 4400 ng/g lipid weight for total OCs and 170–1000 ng/g lipid weight for total PCBs (based on 28 congeners). Relatively smaller DDT concentrations in mussels compared with previous studies suggest reduced discharges of DDTs from nearby regions into Hong Kong waters. Detection of a mixture of HCH isomers in the mussels indicated that Hong Kong waters were predominantly contaminated by technical HCHs rather than lindane. Mussel samples from all sampling locations elicited significant dioxin-like activity in the H4IIE-luc bioassay. The greatest magnitude of dioxin-like response (39 pg TEQ/g wet wt.) was detected in mussels from Ma Wan in the western waters of Hong Kong, which is strongly influenced by the Pearl River discharge. Human health risk assessment was undertaken to evaluate potential risks associated with the consumption of the green-lipped mussels. Risk quotient (RQ) for dioxin-like compounds was greater than unity suggesting that adverse health effects may be associated with high mussel consumption.     

1901-2007年澳门地面气温变化的分析

 利用澳门的气温观测资料, 分析了澳门1901-2007年地面气温变化的基本特征。结果表明：近107 a的升温率为0.066℃/10a, 明显低于全球平均升温率。季节平均气温的年代际变化有明显的季节差异,最大的增暖发生在春季和冬季,夏季的增暖最小;冬、夏季的变化分别有明显的时间尺度约为60 a和30 a的振动。年平均最高气温的升温率仅为最低气温的一半左右。最高气温的年代际变化呈缓慢的气候波动现象,20世纪80年代中期以后的升幅与历史上的增暖大致相当;最低气温近20多年来的增暖趋势可能是其长期（变暖）趋势的延续。年平均日较差整体来说是趋于减少的,但近30 a却趋于增加。     

南海台风Vongfong(2002)登陆前后内核结构和近海加强原因的数值模拟研究

利用6 km细网格区域的显式模拟结果分析了Vongfong(2002)的内核结构;对Vongfong近海加强的动力学机制进行了研究.结果表明:(1) 轴对称性结构中,Vongfong最大风速半径(RMW)在强盛期随高度递减.Vongfong在近海时,低层最强的流入在其移行的前方,而流出区在其后方.这些特征与大西洋飓风和西太平洋台风相反.(2) 动力场和热力场都有明显的不对称结构.在强盛期,对流西北强、东南弱;强对流云带与最大风速区的位置一致.在加强期,低层西冷东暖、中高层西暖东冷;到强盛期,低层和中高层都有明显的暖心结构.(3) 中纬度中上层冷低压系统和台风的相互作用是Vongfong近海加强的重要原因.①由于冷低压系统外围的冷空气从西北侧进入台风的中层,低层有暖湿空气配合,使得位势不稳定能量增加,对流发展.②因为冷低压中心的下沉气流正是二级环流的下沉支,冷低压南移填塞,台风近海加强.两个方面最终通过CISK(第二类条件不稳定)机制来实现.     

iTRAQ-based proteomic profiling of the marine medaka (Oryzias melastigma) gonad exposed to BDE-47

A recent study demonstrated that 2,2′,4,4′-tetrabromodiphenyl ether (BDE-47) may have an adverse effect on the reproduction in marine medaka (Oryzias melastigma), but the molecular mechanisms remain largely unknown. In this study, we investigated the protein expression profiles of male and female gonads of O. melastigma exposed to dietary BDE-47 at two dosages (0.65 and 1.30 μg/g/day, respectively) for 21 days. Extracted proteins were labeled with iTRAQ and analyzed on a MALDI TOF/TOF analyzer, as results, 133 and 144 unique proteins were identified in testis and ovary, respective, and they exerted dose- and sex-dependent expression patterns. In testis, among the 42 differentially expressed proteins; down-regulation of histone variants and parvalbumins implicated BDE-47 may disrupt the spermatogenesis and induce sterility in fishes. In ovary, 38 proteins were differentially expressed; the elevation of vitellogenins and apolipoprotein A–I expression indicated BDE-47 acts as an estrogen-mimicking compound and led to reproductive impairment in O. melastigma.     

Modelling infiltration enhancement in a tropical urban catchment for improved stormwater management

To mitigate the impacts of impervious surfaces in urban areas, structures such as bioretention systems and permeable pavements have been installed to enhance infiltration in many countries. However, relatively little knowledge is available regarding the performance of such infiltration‐based structures in humid tropical and highly urbanized areas. This study investigates the feasibility of enhancing the infiltration of stormwater in tropical urbanized areas using Singapore as a case study. It first shows that the rainfall depth and intensity are both high, but the time interval between consecutive rainfall event is long in Singapore. It then numerically simulates single‐event local infiltration and finds that the fraction of infiltrated rainfall is actually high. It finally performs catchment‐scale simulations and finds that bioretention systems can enhance infiltration and groundwater recharge particularly during wet periods. However, local mounding of groundwater can be significant and can hinder the performance of those structures. Furthermore, with 5% of catchment area being converted to such structures, the infiltration of the entire catchment is enhanced but still not yet up to the natural level. To increase the overall effectiveness, future studies can look into bioretention systems with underdrain systems. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Simulating Study on Resolvable-Scale Microphysical Parameterization in a Mesoscale Model

The Penn State/ NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) is used to simulate the precipitation event that oc-curred during 1-2 May 1994 to the south of the Yangtze River. In five experiments the Kain-Fritsch scheme is made use of for the subgrid-scale convective precipitation, but five different resolvable-scale microphysical parameterization schemes are employed. They are the simple super-saturation removal scheme, the warm rain scheme of Hsie et al. (1984), the simple ice scheme of Dudhia (1989), the complex mixed-phase scheme developed by Reisner et al. (1993). and the GSFC microphysical scheme with graupel. Our interest is how the various resolvable-scale schemes affect the domain-averaged precipitation, the pre-cipitation distribution, the sea level pressure, the cloud water and the cloud ice.Through a series of experiments about a warm sector rainfall case, results show that although the dif-ferent resolvable-scale scheme is used, the differences of the precipitation characteristics among all five runs are not very obvious. However, the precipitation is over-predicted and the strong mesoscale low is produced by the simple super-saturation removal scheme. The warm rain scheme with the inclusion of condensation and evaporation under-predicts the precipitation and allows the cloud water to reach the 300 hPa level The scheme of the addition of graupel increases the resolvable-scale precipitation by about 20%–30%. The inclusion of supercooled liquid water in the grid-scale scheme does not affect significantly the results.